Possible scenario
Brokered Transit Pause
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly China push for a short operational pause that allows tankers to clear the Gulf while talks continue over sanctions enforcement and Iranian exports. This is plausible because both Tehran and Washington have incentives to avoid an uncontrolled oil shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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