Possible scenario
Implementation Proceeds
45% Chance
The Trump administration moves quickly through CMS guidance and state eligibility systems, treating the $6.2 billion savings estimate as a budget win. Most states comply while preparing redeterminations, notices, and appeals processes.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.5%
Tickers
- MOH-1.5%
- CNC-1.2%
- HCA-0.8%
- THC-0.7%
- ELV-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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