Possible scenario
Escalation at Sea
18% Chance
A breakdown in talks could produce a military incident, especially with armed vessels, drones, mines, or misidentified tankers operating in close proximity. This is less likely than a standoff or deal, but the recent U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and Iran's Hormuz closure make escalation a real tail risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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