Possible scenario
Conditional Deal Advances
42% Chance
The most likely path is a negotiated, phased de-escalation because both Washington and Tehran have leverage but also strong incentives to avoid a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oman and Qatar are plausible intermediaries, with the U.S. seeking verification before easing the blockade and Iran seeking visible sanctions relief.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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