Possible scenario
Limited Military Clashes
32% Chance
Iran and its aligned militias test U.S. red lines without committing to all-out war. The most likely escalation path is a contained drone, rocket, or maritime incident followed by urgent mediation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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