Possible scenario
Coercive De-escalation
38% Chance
Iran uses maximal rhetoric to deter a U.S. strike but avoids initiating a direct war. Oman, Qatar, and the U.N. press both sides into crisis-management talks while U.S. carriers remain in place.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.6%
- Energy -2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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