Possible scenario
Government Position Upheld
30% Chance
The Court accepts the Justice Department’s argument that the statute contains no general duress exception and that any exemption must come from Congress or executive waiver authority. This would preserve a hard-line interpretation of terrorism bars used in asylum and deportation-protection cases.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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