Possible scenario
Contained Houthi Strike
45% Chance
The explosion is most likely tied to a Houthi missile or drone attack on Jeddah energy infrastructure, consistent with the same-day claims against Aramco sites. Saudi authorities contain the damage and emphasize continuity of crude production and fuel distribution.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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