Possible scenario
Curfews Restore Order
45% Chance
The most likely path is that curfews, gathering bans and heavy police deployments continue to reduce violence in Paris, Lyon, Marseille and other large cities. The Macron government claims the measures are temporary and begins a controlled rollback once nightly arrests fall.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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