Possible scenario
Concessions Calm Streets
25% Chance
The government pairs security measures with cost-of-living concessions, such as targeted energy support, transport subsidies or food vouchers. This reduces protest participation but raises questions about fiscal discipline and whether the measures are enough for unions and youth groups.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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