Possible scenario
Managed Protectionist Shift
45% Chance
The most likely path is a formal end to free-trade rhetoric without an immediate rupture in global commerce. Rubio's statement becomes the political frame for maintaining broad tariffs, reshoring incentives, and national-security reviews while allowing firms time to adapt.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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