Possible scenario
Ally-Based Trade Bloc
20% Chance
Rubio's statement may mark the end of universal free-trade doctrine but not the end of trade with partners. The administration could pivot toward friend-shoring, sectoral deals, and rules that separate allied supply chains from China-linked networks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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