Possible scenario
Aggressive Tariff Escalation
25% Chance
Rubio's declaration could foreshadow a harder turn toward reciprocal tariffs and new China-specific restrictions. This path would raise the risk of retaliation against US exporters and global firms with China-linked supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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