Possible scenario
Security Bargain Forms
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar and U.S. intermediaries reach a narrow maritime understanding that allows LNG and oil traffic to resume under defined rules. This does not resolve the broader confrontation, but it cuts near-term supply risk and reduces the premium embedded in crude and volatility.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.8%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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