Possible scenario
Technology Controls Dominate
15% Chance
National-security officials keep advanced semiconductors, Huawei-linked systems, and AI export controls separate from the trade package. Tariff discussions continue, but the most market-sensitive technology restrictions remain a source of friction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.