Possible scenario
Comprehensive Tariff Bargain
40% Chance
The most likely bullish case is that Trump and Xi use the state visit to announce a broad framework rather than a fully ratified treaty. Both sides have incentives to cap tariff costs after the 2025 escalation, while leaving the hardest technology-security issues partially unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.8%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.