Possible scenario
Proxy Strike Escalates
28% Chance
Iran chooses a deniable or semi-deniable path by leaning on Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, or the Houthis rather than immediately firing from Iranian territory. This matches Tehran's pattern of calibrating pressure while limiting the chance of a full Israeli strike inside Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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