Possible scenario
Direct Iran Attack
20% Chance
Iran carries out a direct missile and drone strike against Israel, similar in form to April 2024 but in a more dangerous regional setting after the 2026 exchanges. The scale of damage and Israel's response determine whether markets treat it as a contained shock or a broader war risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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