Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
42% Chance
Iran ultimately refrains from a near-term direct attack after warnings are reinforced through US, Emirati, and Omani channels. Israel remains on high alert, but Tehran weighs the risk of another direct exchange after the March and April 2026 escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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