Possible scenario
Diplomatic Friction Persists
30% Chance
Japan's central government keeps public pressure on Washington, reflecting the sensitivity of U.S. bases in Okinawa. The alliance remains intact, but officials hold additional meetings and local leaders call for stronger incident-prevention measures.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.