Possible scenario
Policy Friction Returns
15% Chance
The renewed H200 scarcity could draw policy scrutiny because the U.S. allowed H200 China sales in late 2025. If regulators link rising rental prices to Chinese demand or diversion risk, Nvidia’s China opportunity becomes less certain.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
Tickers
- NVDA-3.1%
- -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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