Possible scenario
Regional Cooperation Deepens
25% Chance
Several governments decide that cooperation with Washington is less costly than confrontation. Prosecutors in countries with strong U.S. security and aid ties use the visa revocations as political cover to revive corruption investigations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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