Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pushback Builds
20% Chance
Some governments frame the visa revocations as U.S. interference, especially if officials close to ruling parties are included. The dispute remains diplomatic rather than commercial, but it adds modest uncertainty around security cooperation and migration talks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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