Possible scenario
Airspace Escalation Returns
22% Chance
Iran follows through on threats or launches another round of attacks near Gulf military and aviation infrastructure. The Qatar Airways pilot shift then looks like an early defensive move before a wider regional aviation disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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