Possible scenario
Regional War Expands
26% Chance
Iran responds through allied forces rather than relying only on the IRGC Navy. Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias widen attacks on U.S., Israeli, and Gulf-linked targets, forcing Washington into a broader regional defense posture.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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