Possible scenario
Limited Naval Campaign
38% Chance
Washington conducts a concentrated air-and-naval campaign against IRGC Navy launch sites, radar, and fast-boat bases while avoiding strikes on regime leadership in Tehran. Iran retaliates intermittently but stops short of formally closing the Strait of Hormuz because it wants to preserve Chinese and Gulf-state channels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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