Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption
18% Chance
Iran attempts to deny or severely restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz using mines, missiles, drones, and small boats. Even a short disruption would create a global oil shock because Gulf exports cannot be fully rerouted.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-4.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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