Possible scenario
Weakened Compromise
30% Chance
Araghchi remains formally in office but loses autonomy over the US file. Supreme National Security Council supervision lets Pezeshkian avoid a cabinet defeat while giving hardliners tighter control over the negotiating channel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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