Possible scenario
Talks Survive Backlash
40% Chance
The impeachment motion becomes a pressure tactic rather than a successful removal effort. President Masoud Pezeshkian, the Supreme National Security Council, and Qatar-backed intermediaries preserve a narrow channel for US-Iran contacts while giving parliament symbolic oversight.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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