Possible scenario
Regional Travel Curbs
15% Chance
Ebola cases outside Congo lead governments and airlines to adopt regional screening, advisories, or limited travel curbs. This outcome would hit African travel and tourism sentiment while modestly lifting vaccine and diagnostics names.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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