Possible scenario
Limited Kenyan Cluster
30% Chance
Kenya records a small number of secondary infections among household contacts, health workers, or fellow travelers. The cluster remains localized, but the presence of Ebola in a major East African transport hub prompts higher screening and mild risk-off trading.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Healthcare +1.0%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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