Possible scenario
Imported Case Contained
45% Chance
Kenyan authorities identify the death as an imported or tightly linked case from the Congo outbreak and rapidly isolate contacts. This is the most likely outcome because Ebola transmission requires close bodily-fluid contact and Kenya has relatively stronger surveillance capacity than eastern Congo.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Tickers
- MRK-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.