Possible scenario
Voluntary Cuts Hold
45% Chance
The White House and Energy Department secure enough voluntary cooperation from major Gulf Coast refiners to avoid a formal export ban. Diesel prices remain elevated but stop accelerating, and markets treat the plan as less disruptive than mandatory export controls.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- VLO+1.1%
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.