Possible scenario
Mandatory Curbs Return
20% Chance
If diesel prices rise further, the White House may conclude that voluntary reductions are politically insufficient. Mandatory restrictions would directly hit refiners' export economics and create friction with trading partners in Latin America and Europe.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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