Possible scenario
Diesel Prices Stay High
25% Chance
The voluntary plan fails to generate enough near-term supply relief because refinery outages persist and inventories remain tight. The administration continues to avoid an export ban, but political pressure rises as trucking, agriculture and retailers face record fuel costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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