Possible scenario
Hard-Right Netanyahu Win
42% Chance
Netanyahu's pledge consolidates Likud and far-right support before the Oct. 27 election, allowing him to return with a narrow right-wing majority. The new government keeps opposing Palestinian statehood, rejecting French-Saudi recognition efforts and limiting room for Trump's Gaza plan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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