Possible scenario
Street Clashes Spread
28% Chance
Right-wing groups, looters, and counter-protesters clash despite the curfew, forcing a heavier national police deployment. The unrest remains below crisis levels but becomes a material domestic-security shock for France over the next one to two trading days.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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