Possible scenario
National Crackdown Deepens
18% Chance
The French government broadens its legal response, using prefectural orders and emergency-style policing tools to prevent further riots. Political backlash grows from opposition parties and civil-liberties groups, but investors treat the situation as a governance issue rather than a systemic crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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