Possible scenario
Curfew Enforcement Holds
42% Chance
French police contain the right-wing march and prevent a broader confrontation with rioters or counter-protesters. The Interior Ministry uses arrests, checkpoints, and localized curfews to reassert control without triggering a nationwide security crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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