Possible scenario
Tax Windfall Materializes
35% Chance
Record Wall Street profits translate into stronger-than-budgeted New York City and state tax receipts. Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Comptroller Brad Lander use the forecast to defend spending plans while delaying the most aggressive new tax proposals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Business Services +0.3%
Tickers
- GS+1.0%
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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