Possible scenario
Tax Fight Escalates
25% Chance
The profit forecast strengthens progressive arguments for higher levies on securities firms, bonuses, or carried interest. Wall Street trade groups and major banks push back, warning that jobs and high earners could move to Florida, Texas, or Connecticut.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Business Services -0.2%
Tickers
- GS-0.4%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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