Possible scenario
Narrowed Compromise Passes
25% Chance
The agreement survives but is narrowed to address objections from House Republicans, state officials or environmental Democrats. The result still improves permitting predictability, but the most market-relevant provisions on transmission, offshore wind or judicial review are diluted.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- WMB+0.8%
- NEE-0.6%
- LNG+0.5%
- PWR-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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