Possible scenario
Deal Enacted Intact
45% Chance
The Senate-White House agreement holds together through final votes, with most NEPA deadlines, transmission provisions, pipeline language and energy-project review limits preserved. This is the base case because the headline indicates both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue have already resolved the recent wind dispute.
Initial impacts
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
- Energy +1.2%
- Utilities +0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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