Possible scenario
Coalition Breaks Down
20% Chance
Despite the announced agreement, the coalition fractures over offshore wind, pipeline approvals, state authority or environmental litigation limits. This resembles prior permitting-reform failures after the 2022 Manchin-Schumer side deal and would reverse some policy optimism.
Initial impacts
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.0%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Energy -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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