Possible scenario
Release Falls Short
25% Chance
The accelerated drawdown is judged insufficient against Russia's non-producer diesel export ban and already depleted emergency inventories. Markets refocus on the loss of Russian refined products and the limited ability of reserve barrels to replace diesel immediately.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Industrials -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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