Possible scenario
Release Calms Diesel
45% Chance
IEA members execute the accelerated drawdown with early emphasis on middle distillates and crude grades that refiners can quickly convert into diesel. The most likely near-term result is a partial easing in diesel cracks, lower crude benchmarks, and modest relief for transport-heavy sectors.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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