Possible scenario
Targeting Pause Deal
35% Chance
Trump and Zelenskyy reach a narrow understanding that Ukraine will limit attacks on Russian refineries while Washington keeps near-term military support flowing. This is the most likely outcome because both leaders have incentives to show cooperation without conceding core war aims.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Tickers
- VLO-1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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