Possible scenario
Conditional Withdrawal Track
26% Chance
Iran’s parliament moves the bill through an expedited process but leaves implementation conditional on further sanctions, inspections disputes, or leadership approval. This would be a material escalation, though still short of a formal Article X withdrawal notice.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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