Possible scenario
Bill Stalls as Leverage
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the triple-urgency bill is used as bargaining leverage rather than immediately converted into law. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and senior leadership retain control over nuclear policy, making a symbolic parliamentary escalation more likely than a fast legal withdrawal from the NPT.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.