Possible scenario
Negotiated Shipping Corridor
25% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries broker a limited arrangement that reopens part of the strait to monitored non-Iranian trade. The U.S. preserves pressure on Tehran while reducing the global energy shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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